Given the indictments of black Friday, the foremost concern that everybody has is whether their online money is safe at Poker Stars and Full Tilt (I’ll exclude Absolute and Ultimate bet from this discussion because of their notorious past).
The short answer is: If you’re a non-American player, your funds are almost certainly safe. If you’re an American, your funds at Stars and Full tilt are probably safe.
The forfeiture allegations in the indictment specify that the government is seeking forfeiture of the property of the defendants. This property includes their ownership interest in the poker sites, and the funds on deposit in a lot of specified bank accounts. There is no paragraph in the indictment or the forfeiture allegations in it in which the government claims to have any right to seize player funds. If player funds are on deposit in the specified accounts, then they are being targeted for forfeiture. But to the extent the sites could prove that such funds belonged to players, they would be excluded from the property to be forfeited on that basis.
So the big question is: have the sites consistently maintained player funds in bank accounts segregated from the sites’ own money, or have they commingled their funds with those of the players?
I don’t know the answer to this question, but it seems likely to me that, at least as an accounting matter, the sites have the ability to prove that player deposits are separately accounted for, and can be proved to be player funds. Thus, although there is some risk, it does not seem like the government is even trying to seize player funds, and that players would have a good defense to the forfeiture of their money (which could be asserted for them by the sites).
The only other risk to player funds would arise IF it were true that the sites were using player funds for operating expenses, drawing down player funds below the amount necessary to cash out all players, and then the sites went out of business with less cash on hand than would be required to fully cash out all players.
Although there has been a lot of scared talk about the sites not being able to survive, I think it is most likely that they can and will. US players represented maybe a third of the worldwide player pool on these sites. That’s a serious blow to their business, but the sites should be able to survive it. It is worth noting that because of the hoops they had to jump through to cash out Americans, and the extra transaction costs involved in deposits from and withdrawals by Americans, the sites just lost their least profitable players. Thus, although their player pools shrank dramatically, their profit margins should increase.
In short, I don’t think there is a serious risk that the sites will go out of business insolvent.
Because I believe the sites will survive, and the government does not appear at this moment to be going after player funds, it looks like players’ money will probably be safe and available to them at some point in the future.
Which raises the next question: When can American players expect to see our money again?
There really is no good answer to this one. There are too many unknowns. Somebody on 2+2 asked me to score the likelihood that we would get our money back in a few months on a scale of 1-10 (10 being certainty). My response was:
- Within a few months: 3
- Within a year: 7
- Eventually: 9
Although these estimates are almost pure speculation on my part, the basis for the speculation is the length of time it normally takes a federal criminal case to be prosecuted. It is comparatively rare that a case would move from indictment to trial within a few months. It is also somewhat rare for them to drag on longer than a year. Thus, if the case goes to trial, players should start to see some resolution of their accounts somewhere around the one year mark. That assumes that no one involved, including the Poker Players Alliance, the government, the sites, or interested players make any special effort to bring the issue of player funds to a speedier resolution. It is certainly possible for such an effort to be made, but there is no pressing reason to believe at this point that anybody will undertake that effort.
The reason I estimate the chance of us getting our money back within a year as a 7 is simply because it is not clear at all that this prosecutor ever intends to bring the poker sites to trial. He unsealed the indictments at a time when he knew that most of the defendants were out of the country and not subject to arrest. he knows that extradition is difficult to achieve in general, and will likely prove especially difficult in this case. So why did he act now?
I can see two explanations:
1. He knows something I don’t know suggesting that extradition of these defendants is likely to succeed. This is certainly possible, as he is the guy doing the prosecuting and presumably discussing extradition with the countries at issue, while I’m just an ex-lawyer trying to pay attention to the issue in my spare time.
2. he doesn’t care whether they are extradited or they ever stand trial. This actually makes a lot of sense. Some seizures have already occurred, some easy to convict low level players have been arrested and can be served up as easy pickings, and the sites have abandoned the US. Why put the taxpayers to the expense of a long drawn-out trial when he has accomplished what he set out to achieve? He has killed online poker in the US just by unsealing the indictment. There is a good possibility he will be satisfied with that, claim the other defendants are “fugitives from justice,” and declare victory.
If scenario 2 plays out, then player funds could very well sit in limbo while the court system waits a long time for the prosecutor to seek extradition of people he has no intention of going after. Eventually, after a long enough delay, the court will entertain a motion on behalf of the players to have a mechanism set up to get them their money. There’s no guarantee this would work, and it’d take a long time, but, eventually, something would shake loose.
It could be a while, but I am pretty confident that we will eventually see our money again. Hang in there.